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Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling

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posted on 2024-10-14, 10:15 authored by Thomas J Hladish, Alexander N. Pillai, Carl A. B. Pearson, Kok Ben Toh, Andrea C. Tamayo, Arlin Stoltzfus, Ira M Longini

We evaluate approaches to vaccine distribution using an agent-based model of human activity and COVID-19 transmission calibrated to detailed trends in cases, hospitalizations, deaths, seroprevalence, and vaccine breakthrough infections in Florida, USA. We compare the incremental effectiveness for four different distribution strategies at four different levels of vaccine supply, starting in late 2020 through early 2022. Our analysis indicates that the best strategy to reduce severe outcomes would be to actively target high disease-risk individuals. This was true in every scenario, although the advantage was greatest for the intermediate vaccine availability assumptions and relatively modest compared to a simple mass vaccination approach under high vaccine availability. Ring vaccination, while generally the most effective strategy for reducing infections, ultimately proved least effective at preventing deaths. We also consider using age group as a practical surrogate measure for actual disease-risk targeting; this approach also outperforms both simple mass distribution and ring vaccination. We find that quantitative effectiveness of a strategy depends on whether effectiveness is assessed after the alpha, delta, or omicron wave. However, these differences in absolute benefit for the strategies do not change the ranking of their performance at preventing severe outcomes across vaccine availability assumptions.

Funding

The Emerson Collective

The Ron Conway Family

Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation

The World Health Organization

History

Publisher

Stellenbosch University

Contributor

Hladish, Thomas J; Pillai, Alexander N; Pearson, Carl AB; Toh, Kok Ben; Tamayo, Andrea C; Stoltzfus, Arlin; & Longini, Ira M.

Date

2024-05-31

Format

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Language

en

Geographical Location

United States of America, Florida.

Academic Group

  • Medicine and Health Sciences

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Recommended Citation

Hladish, TJ, Pillai, AN, Pearson, CAB, Toh, KB, Tamayo, AC, Stoltzfus, A & Longini, IM. 2024. Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling. Stellenbosch University. Dataset. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25413/sun.27222900