Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
Version 2 2025-02-11, 10:14
Version 1 2020-10-13, 08:06
dataset
posted on 2025-02-11, 10:14 authored by Thibaut Jombart, Kevin Van Zandvoort, Timothy W. Russell, Christopher I. Jarvis, Amy Gimma, Sam Abbott, Samuel Clifford, Sebastian Funk, Hamish Gibbs, Yang Liu, Carl A. B. Pearson, Nikos l. Bosse, Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, Rosalind M. Eggo, Adam J. Kucharski, W. John EdmundsWe estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.
Funding
The Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF) project ‘RECAP’ managed through RCUK and ESRC (ES/P010873/1)
The United Kingdom Department of Health and Social Care
The National Institute for Health Research - Health Protection Research Unit for Modelling Methodology
The Wellcome Trust (grant number: 210758/Z/18/Z)
The Wellcome Trust (grant number: 206250/Z/17/Z)
The Wellcome Trust (grant number: 208812/Z/17/Z)
The HDR UK (grant number: MR/S003975/1)
The National Institute for Health (grant number: 16/137/109)
Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (grant number: INV-003174)
History
Publisher
Stellenbosch UniversityContributor
Jombart, T; van Zandvoort, K; Russell TW; Jarvis, CI; Gimma, A; Abbott, S; Clifford, S; Funk, S; Gibbs, H; Liu, Y; Pearson, CAB, Bosse, NI; Eggo, RM; Kucharski, AJ; & Edmunds, WJ.Date
2020-03-13Format
pdfLanguage
enGeographical Location
GlobalAcademic Group
- Medicine and Health Sciences
Recommended Citation
Jombart, T, van Zandvoort, K, Russell TW, Jarvis, CI, Gimma, A, Abbott, S, Clifford, S, Funk, S, Gibbs, H, Liu, Y, Pearson, CAB, Bosse, NI, Eggo, RM, Kucharski, AJ & Edmunds, WJ. 2020. Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. Stellenbosch University. Dataset. DOI: https://doi.org/10.25413/sun.12952274Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
- Goal 3: GOOD HEALTH & WELL-BEING
- Goal 11: SUSTAINABLE CITIES & COMMUNITIES
